Goldman says oil to surpass United States dollars 80 with market likely balanced

02 February, 2018, 21:50 | Author: Martin Tyler
  • U.S. oil prices fall after weekly supply data

In the coming months, we might see a continued buildup on oil inventories as the refineries enter the maintenance season.

Ongoing optimism that OPEC-led output cuts would also continue supports oil indexes. ICE is based in Atlanta, but is known for its European contracts after it bought London's International Petroleum Exchange and its Brent futures contract in 2001. November's production is the first time since 1970 that monthly US production levels surpassed 10 million b/d and the second-highest USA monthly oil production value ever, just below the November 1970 production value of 10.044 million b/d.

Goldman and others had predicted in 2014 that any effort by OPEC to curb supply would hardly amount to much - the USA shale industry can raise production at such pace and volumes that it would fill the gap. Supply remains below the kingdom's OPEC target.

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While others also showed compliance with the OPEC production cut deal by cutting exports (such as Kuwait and Angola) these efforts were offset by rising exports elsewhere from the likes of Libya and Nigeria.

"There is a case to be made that the market is even tighter than [supposed] if the portion of inventories with API above 40 degrees has increased in recent years and months", Hajji said.

Top exporter Saudi Arabia boosted output by 50,000 bpd, according to sources in the survey who cited higher exports for much of January. Others, including UBS Group AG and Societe Generale SA, said last month that OPEC and Russian Federation should wind down the strategy earlier than scheduled, phasing out the cuts from the middle of the year. At 418.4 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are in the middle of the average range for this time of year.

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Oil fell as the dollar rose after growth surged in January and wages rose, recording their largest annual gain in more than 8-1/2 years. In 2018, demand growth shoots up to a staggering 1.86 mb/d, the investment bank predicts, before easing just a bit to 1.6 mb/d in 2019.

OPEC shared this view, but then surprised the market in September 2016 by announcing their intention to cut supply.

US crude, meanwhile, is flowing into global markets. However, because of the way U.S. Customs and Border Protection export data are reported, some nations listed as receiving crude oil exports from the United States in EIA statistics, such as Singapore and Netherlands, may not be final destinations. The pact will run until the end of 2018. Production in the Federal Gulf of Mexico reached 1.67 million b/d, up 14% from the October 2017 level as the region recovered from Hurricane Nate.

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