India's growth pace for October-December quarter could top China's rate

04 March, 2018, 04:03 | Author: Martin Tyler
  • India’s economic growth picked up sharply in October December quarter expanding by 7.2 per cent which indicates that economy has turnaround after demonetisation and GST

India's GDP for the third quarter of 2017-18 grew at 7.2%, official data stressed on Wednesday. The last time the economy had a faster growth rate was in the final three months of 2016.

"However, the gross value addition (GVA), which is net of taxes, is not as good as GDP, underscoring the fact much more needs to be done in terms of sustainable growth", he added. In manufacturing which is the real key to jobs data, the growth has come down to 5.1 per cent this year compared with 7.9 per cent in the previous year.

"We have added the risk of a rate hike sometime between June to August 2018 following the recent monetary policy minutes, hinging on the inflation trajectory, and the GDP numbers reinstate our views".

"The higher growth in the third quarter is partly because of the base effect".

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Interestingly, sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, construction, real estate and other services have helped the growth. The government also revised its GDP forecast for the 2017-'18 financial year to 6.6% from its previous prediction of 6.5%. Garg said: "Manufacturing growth at 8.1 per cent and construction growth at 6.8 percent confirms robust turnaround in industrial economy". Surely that is bound to weigh on growth and dent confidence, especially with the government and the probe agencies appearing to go overboard after successive reports of frauds and wrongdoing in many banks.

The government estimates the economy will grow by 7.2-7.5 percent in the second half of the current fiscal year and has said the country is on track to achieve growth of eight percent "soon".

China had recorded a growth of 6.8 per cent in the December quarter.

"... The growth in GDP during 2017-18 is estimated at 6.6 percent as compared to the growth rate of 7.1 percent in 2016-17", the estimates disclosed.

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The agriculture sector grew 4.1 percent in October-December period.

The ECI index represents the output of major sectors like coal, steel, cement and electricity and carries 40.27 per cent weightage of the Index of Industrial Production which is the macro-gauge for India's factory output.

"We foresee bank lending being affected in the quarters ahead because of the problems plaguing our financial sector", Rao said. The IMF's update, released in January, projects a 7.8 per cent growth rate for India in 2019.

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