How will the Iran deal collapse impact crude prices

18 May, 2018, 09:33 | Author: Genevieve Gibbs
  • An oil drilling rig off the US Pacific Ocean coastline. Energy agency says US likely to increase output. Eugene Garcia  EPA

Iran's oil production has declined and is expected to continue to do so when USA sanctions are reimposed and Venezuela's production has also reduced dramatically as the country has not invested enough in its industry. It is the highest level since October 2016 as per the data from shipping and Industry sector.

In its monthly report, the Paris-based IEA cut its forecast for 2018 global demand growth to 1.4 million barrels per day, from 1.5 million bpd.

Considering the fact that India is one of the highest importers of crude oil in the world, the prediction is a huge concern.

"I expect that Venezuelan production will continue to decline and the upcoming elections hold the spectre of the U.S. imposing additional sanctions on Venezuela that may hasten the loss of supply", said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, a consultancy in Houston. Earlier, US president Donald Trump announced US'S withdrawal from an agreement signed between United States, Iran and other major powers of the world. The OPEC Reference Basket of Crudes (ORB) is made up of the following: Saharan Blend (Algeria), Girassol (Angola), Oriente (Ecuador), Zafiro (Equatorial Guinea), Rabi Light (Gabon), Iran Heavy (Islamic Republic of Iran), Basra Light (Iraq), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Es Sider (Libya), Bonny Light (Nigeria), Qatar Marine (Qatar), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Murban (UAE), and Merey (Venezuela).

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"US shale can not solve the current oil supply problems", it said, arguing that USA oil would not be sufficient to offset production losses from Iran, Venezuela and Angola. "Surely initially it will be hard to make payments to Iran".

Over the last three years, the two countries have been a seesaw of production.

"We can probably expect further devaluation of currency and panic in the market". This was not far off Tuesday's $71.92 a barrel - also a level not seen since November 2014.

"And on top of it, you have the announcement on Iran, which is pushing the price up", said Pouyanne.

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However, while the USA has left the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement, fellow signatories, the UK, Germany, France, Russia and China, have assured that they will stick to the agreement.

Some media reports said Iran and the European countries involved in the deal were keen on continuing to comply with it.

On currency markets, the dollar has benefited from bets on higher US rates, keeping it around multi-month highs against its major peers.

As per oil firms' estimates, after the lifting of sanctions on Iran past year, money in the rupee account of UCO Bank has declined to Rs 2,000 crore from a high of Rs 20,000 crore.

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"We are used to conducting business even with sanctions in place", said another Iranian source.

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